Market Data - April 2017

We are looking at single family homes priced from $500,000 upwards in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.

Supply

On April 1, 2017 we have 3,580 active listings over $500,000. This is 2% more than the 3,500 we saw last month. Luxury listing counts have increased at a faster pace than the rest of market. However this total represents 4% fewer listings than we saw in April 2016. April is usually the annual peak for supply so we expect the numbers to decline over the next 5 months. 99% of active listings are normal with just 34 short sales and 15 lender-owned properties. The increase in supply was consistent across all price ranges, except for homes over $3 million. Here the count fell back from a post-crash record level of 331 on March 1 to 315 on April 1. This is still a very plentiful supply.

Demand – Sales

There were 455 closed transactions though ARMLS during March 2017. This is a large 25% jump from March 2016, when we saw 363. It is the second highest March total in history, beaten only by 2005 at the height of the housing bubble. All the price ranges participated in the increase, with the lowest rung of $500,000 to $600,000 showing the fastest growth of 40%. Even the weakest range between $1 million and $1.5 million showed an 11% increase over March 2016. This surge in closings represents a strong recovery after a slightly underwhelming February.

Demand – Under Contract

We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. The number of listings under contract was 642 as of April 1, which is up another 14% from the 561 of April 1, 2016. There is a contrast between the gains in listings under contract and the gains in monthly sales. The price range from $1 million to $1.5 million showed the largest percentage growth in listings under contract, up by 40%. The range from $600,000 to $800.000 was also strong with a 39% increase. However, homes between $800,000 and $1 million and between $1.5 million and $2 million saw declines of 11% and 26% respectively compared with last year. For homes over $3 million there was a bounce back from last month’s 33% decline with a 15% increase year over year. Normal sales comprise 96% of luxury homes in escrow, up from 95% a year ago.

Sales Pricing

Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the 12 month average move upwards to around $267 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 22%. However luxury home pricing peaked in August 2015 when the 12 month average price per sq. ft. hit $269 and we have not seen any move higher than that since. The 12 month average since September 2016 has been very stable at $266 to $268 per sq. ft. and is currently just $1 higher than a year ago in March 2016. The six month moving average stands at $272, up from $268 in March 2016. However the 3 month average now stands at $272, the same as in March 2016.

Under Contract Pricing

The pricing for homes under contract was at a low point of $165 per sq. ft. in September 2011. Up to the end of March 2014 it was advancing quickly and reached a peak of $257. Between March 2014 and March 2017 it has made no consistent moves in either direction. But and as of April 1, 2017, the average stands at $262, $10 higher than last year and almost in reach of the peak of $264 set in January 2016. This suggests that sales prices may possibly be able to make some progress in the near future. The average under contract price for normal listings is $264 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $232 per sq. ft and short sales average $179 per sq. ft.

Area Reports - April 2017

Although we publish montly reports for the following five communities, we track sales in all areas of the Northeast Valley. If you have questions about a specific area that is not covered in the areas below, please call us at 480-991-2050 and we can provide you with up-to-date market information.

Paradise Valley

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Scottsdale

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Arcadia

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Biltmore

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Fountain Hills

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