Market Data - April 2018

We are looking at single family homes priced from $500,000 upwards in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.

Supply

On April 1st, 2018 we had 3,385 active listings over $500,000. This is a 3% increase from last month. We have 5% fewer listings than we saw on April 1st, 2017. Despite this, luxury listings are still in good supply compared with the rest of market. Normally luxury listing counts peak at the beginning of April and decline until September and 2018 should be no exception. The price-range from $500,000 to $600,000 fell 16% compared with 2017 while that between $1.5 million and $2 million increased by 8%. 98% of active listings are normal with 42 short sales and sixteen lender-owned properties.

Demand – Sales

March 2018 gave us 549 closed transactions though ARMLS. This is a strong 21% rise from March 2017, when we saw 454. It is also the highest March total in history for the Northeast Valley luxury market, exceeding the previous record of 514 in 2005. We have now experienced four very strong sales months in a row. Every price range saw an increase over March 2017, with the sector between $1 million and $1.5 million up 90% and homes over $3 rising 36% from eleven to fifteen. These numbers become even more impressive when we remember that March 2017 had 23 working days while March 2018 only had 22.

Demand – Under Contract

We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. We started April 2018 with 727 listings under contract, which is up 13% from the 642 of April 1st, 2017. This is a slightly smaller increase than last month but suggests continued year over year sales growth during April and May. Most price ranges saw good increases compared to last year, though homes under $800,000 saw a slight decline, probably because of diminishing supply. Normal sales comprise 97% of luxury homes in escrow, up from 96% last year.

Sales Pricing

Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the twelve-month average move upwards to around $275 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 26%. Luxury home pricing first peaked in August 2015 when the twelve-month average price per sq. ft. hit $269 and finally exceeded that level five months ago. The twelve-month average currently stands at $275, up 3% from $267 in March 2017. The six-month average has climbed to $280, up from $272 in March 2017 and the three-month average reached $286, up from $272 in March 2017.

Overall luxury pricing has established a rising price trend again over the last 4 months, having moved sideways between 2015 and 2017.

Under Contract Pricing

We have seen a rise in sales pricing over the past four months. Under contract pricing stands at an average of $279 per sq. ft. as of April 1st, up from $261 at the start of April last year. This is also higher than the $274 we were seeing last month and suggests that sales pricing is likely to continue increasing over the near term.

The average under contract price for normal listings is $281 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $180 per sq. ft and short sales average $205 per sq. ft.

Area Reports - April 2018

Although we publish montly reports for the following five communities, we track sales in all areas of the Northeast Valley. If you have questions about a specific area that is not covered in the areas below, please call us at 480-991-2050 and we can provide you with up-to-date market information.

Paradise Valley

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Scottsdale

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Arcadia

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Biltmore

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Fountain Hills

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