Market Data - April 2019

We are looking at single family homes priced from $500,000 upwards in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.

Supply

On April 1st, 2019 we had 3,238 active listings over $500,000. This is a 3% increase from 3,155 last month but typical for the time of year and represents 4% fewer listings than we saw on April 1st, 2018. The supply trend was moving clearly downwards during 2018 until we reached November. Although December through February saw supply start on a rising trend again, the March and April numbers have been neutral. The price ranges between $1 million and $1.5 million saw a slight decrease last month, but all others increased and the range over $3 million hit a new record high at 364 listings.  99% of active listings are normal with 23 short sales / pre-foreclosures and nine lender-owned properties. Normally luxury listing counts hit a peak at the beginning of April and we therefore expect counts to start falling from this point.

Demand – Sales

March 2019 gave us 476 closed transactions though ARMLS. This is down 14% from March 2018, when we saw a record 555. Despite the drop it is still the third highest total for March after 2005 and 2018. The range over $3 million set a new record high for March with 27 closed sales, a dramatic increase over the previous record of eighteen set in both 2007 and 2008. The range between $800,000 and $1 million increased 7% from March 2018 but all other ranges saw a fall compared to last year.

Demand – Under Contract

We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. We started April 2019 with 764 listings under contract, which is down 4% from the 794 of April 1st, 2018. This is a smaller gap than last month. Above $3 million we now have more homes under contract (52) than we have seen at the start of any previous April. This suggests that the top end of the market will again be strong in April after a record March. Normal sales comprise 98% of luxury homes in escrow, up from 97% last year.

Sales Pricing

Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the twelve-month average move upwards to $284 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 30%. Luxury home pricing first peaked in August 2015 when the twelve-month average price per sq. ft. hit $269 and finally exceeded that level fifteen months ago. The twelve-month average currently stands at $284, up 4% from $274 in March 2018. The six-month average has climbed to $291, up from $280 in March 2018 and the three-month average stands at $299, up from $286 in March 2018.

Overall luxury pricing has established a rising price trend again over the last fifteen months, having moved sideways between 2015 and 2017. This has been helped by the growing number of transactions over $3 million.

Under Contract Pricing

We have seen a rise in sales pricing over the past 16 months, but under contract pricing had been showing little movement until December when we saw an abrupt rise to $300 per sq. ft. This reflected the low percentage of homes under $1 million in escrow at the start of January and a relatively strong showing from homes over $1 million. At the start of April our figure stands at $304. We therefore expect sales $/SF to remain strong during April, though maybe not as strong as March.

The average under contract price for normal listings is $307 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $206 per sq. ft and short sales and pre-foreclosures average $235 per sq. ft.

Area Reports - April 2019

Although we publish montly reports for the following five communities, we track sales in all areas of the Northeast Valley. If you have questions about a specific area that is not covered in the areas below, please call us at 480-991-2050 and we can provide you with up-to-date market information.

Paradise Valley

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Scottsdale

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Arcadia

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Biltmore

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Fountain Hills

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