Market Data - December 2016
We are looking at single family homes price from $500,000 upwards in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.
On December 1, 2016 we had 3,113 active listings over $500,000. This was 4% more than the 3,007 we saw last month and 6% more than last year at the same time. We can expect supply to fall during December but then grow substantially between January and April 2017. Distressed properties represent a tiny fraction of the inventory. Over 98% of active listings are normal with 48 short sales and 12 lender-owned properties, coincidentally exactly the same numbers as the previous month. The increase in supply was fairly consistent across all price ranges, although the range between $600K and $800K declined slightly.
Demand – Sales
There were 282 closed transactions though ARMLS during November 2016. This is another strong number, the highest November total since 2006. It is up 34% from the same time period in 2015. However, it is important to note that November 2015 was a particularly weak month due to the introduction new restrictions placed on lenders, which delayed closings on a significant number of properties. 2016’s increase was focused primarily on lower price points and did not apply to the range over $3 million where we only saw five closings. This is much lower than November 2015 and 2014.
Demand – Under Contract
We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. The number of listings under contract was 425 as of December 1, which is an increase of 9% from December 1, 2015 and up 27% from last month. This is another positive sign and all ranges between $500,000 and $1.5 million are up compared with last year. However, home over $1.5 million are down 22%. Normal sales comprise 94% of luxury homes in escrow, up from 93% a year ago.
Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the 12 month average move upwards to around $268 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 22%. However luxury home pricing peaked in August 2015 and had been in a slump until last month. The strong showing in October was followed by another increase in pricing in November. The 12 month average pricing is $4 per sq. ft. higher than it was a year ago in November 2015. The six month moving average stands at $263, up from $257 in November last year. The 3 month average stands at $271, which is up $19 from November 2015. These increases are primarily due to the segment of the market that has been moving as opposed to actual appreciation in value. Values have remained relatively flat.
Under Contract Pricing
The pricing for homes under contract was at a low point of $165 per sq. ft. in September 2011. Up to the end of March 2014 it was advancing and reached a peak of $257. Between March 2014 and November 2016 it has made no consistent moves in either direction and as of December 1, the average still stands at $258, close to the same level as last month and 2.5 years ago. This suggests that sales prices will continue to move sideways in the near future. This implies that the more favorable average pricing that we saw in October and November was primarily due to a favorable change in mix away from the lower price segments, rather than a general improvement in pricing across the board. The average under contract price for normal listings is $264 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $184 per sq. ft and short sales average $185 per sq. ft.
Area Reports - December 2016
Although we publish montly reports for the following five communities, we track sales in all areas of the Northeast Valley. If you have questions about a specific area that is not covered in the areas below, please call us at 480-991-2050 and we can provide you with up-to-date market information.