Market Data - December 2017

We are looking at single family homes priced from $500,000 upwards in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.

Supply

On December 1st, 2017 we have 3,005 active listings over $500,000. This is only fifteen more than the 2,990 we saw last month. This latest total represents 3.5% fewer listings than we saw on December 1st, 2016, so there is a slight drop from this time last year and a larger drop than we saw last month. Luxury listings are still in good supply compared with the rest of market. However, we expect listing counts to fall between now and the end of December but grow quickly between January and April. The increase in active listings was highest for the price ranges over $800,000, while listings below this price declined. 98% of active listings are normal with 41 short sales and ten lender-owned properties.

Demand – Sales

There were 370 closed transactions though ARMLS during November 2017. This is a very strong 32% rise from November 2016, when we saw 281. This is the second highest November total in history, beaten only by 2005 (with 384), at the height of the housing bubble. All price ranges saw higher sales than in November 2016, with the ranges between $500,000 and $800,000 (up 40%) and over $3 million (up from 5 to 14) doing best. Between $800,000 and $3 million the increase was 17%.

Demand – Under Contract

We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. The number of listings under contract was 511 as of December 1st, which is up 21% from the 424 of December 1st, 2016. This is a slightly lower percentage than last month but still suggests strong sales during December. All price ranges saw good increases, with an increase from eight to thirteen for homes over $3 million being the highest percentage increase and $1.5 million to $2 million being just behind with a jump from 21 to 33. Normal sales comprise 97% of luxury homes in escrow, up from 95% last year.

Sales Pricing

Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the twelve-month average move upwards to around $270 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 23%. Luxury home pricing first peaked in August 2015 when the twelve-month average price per sq. ft. hit $269 and finally exceeded that level two months ago. The twelve-month average currently stands at $270, up less than 1% from $268 in November 2016. The six-month average edged up to $266, up 1% from $263 in November 2016 and the three-month average reached $267, down $3 from $270 in November 2016.

Despite strong sales, overall luxury sales pricing has remained almost flat over the last two years in the Northeast Valley.

Under Contract Pricing

The pricing for homes under contract was at a low point of $165 per sq. ft. in September 2011. Up to the end of March 2014 it was advancing quickly and reached a peak of $257. Until last month it had made no consistent moves in either direction since then. However, it finally made a new high on November 1st and as of December 1st, 2017, the average stands at $267, the same as last month. This suggests that sales prices might make a little positive progress in the next couple of months. The average under contract price for normal listings is $269 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $221 per sq. ft and short sales average $219 per sq. ft.

Area Reports - December 2017

Although we publish montly reports for the following five communities, we track sales in all areas of the Northeast Valley. If you have questions about a specific area that is not covered in the areas below, please call us at 480-991-2050 and we can provide you with up-to-date market information.

Paradise Valley

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Scottsdale

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Arcadia

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Biltmore

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Fountain Hills

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