Market Data - February 2017
Our monthly report analyzes market trends for single-family homes priced $500,000 and over in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.
On February 1, 2017 we have 3,280 active listings over $500,000. This is 10% more than the 2,971 we saw last month. Luxury listing counts have increased at a much faster pace than the rest of market. However this total represents 1% less than we saw in February 2016. We can expect supply to continue to rise for the next 2 months, peaking at the beginning of April. 98% of active listings are normal with 38 short sales and 12 lender-owned properties. The increase in supply was consistent across all price ranges, but supply for the range above $3 million is already at the level of April 2016 so is almost certain to hit a higher peak in 2017.
Demand – Sales
There were 260 closed transactions though ARMLS during January 2017. This is a strong number for a month that is usually slow, up 14% from last year and the highest January total since 2007. The weakest price ranges were $500,000 to $600,000 and over $3 million which had just 6 closed sales. However the range over $3 million did see the highest closing price ever recorded through ARMLS at $12,750,000, overtaking the previous record of $12,500,000.
Demand – Under Contract
We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. The number of listings under contract was 468 as of February 1, which is up a solid 12% from the 419 of February 1, 2016. The only weak range was that over $3 million which dropped from 16 contracts in 2016 to just 9 this year. Normal sales comprise 94% of luxury homes in escrow, up from 93% a year ago.
Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the 12 month average move upwards to around $267 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 22%. However luxury home pricing peaked in August 2015 and had been in a bit of a slump until last fall. However pricing has strengthened since October and we are starting to see some year over year increases. The 12 month average pricing is $2 higher than a year ago in January 2016. The six month moving average stands at $269, up from $264 in January 2016. The 3 month average stands at $277, which is up $13 from January 2016.
Under Contract Pricing
The pricing for homes under contract was at a low point of $165 per sq. ft. in September 2011. Up to the end of March 2014 it was advancing and reached a peak of $257. Between March 2014 and February 2017 it has made no consistent moves in either direction and as of February 1, 2017, the average still stands at $249, close to the same level as last year. This suggests that sales prices will continue to move sideways in the near future. It also implies that the more favorable average sales pricing that we saw in the last four months was primarily due to a favorable change in mix away from the lower price segments, rather than a general improvement in pricing across the board. The average under contract price for normal listings is $254 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $184 per sq. ft and short sales average $179 per sq. ft.
Area Reports - February 2017
Although we publish montly reports for the following five communities, we track sales in all areas of the Northeast Valley. If you have questions about a specific area that is not covered in the areas below, please call us at 480-991-2050 and we can provide you with up-to-date market information.