Market Data - February 2018

We are looking at single family homes priced from $500,000 upwards in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.

Supply

On February 1, 2018 we had 3,152 active listings over $500,000. This is a 12% increase from last month. We have 4% fewer listings than we saw on February 1, 2017. Despite this, luxury listings are still in good supply compared with the rest of market. We expect listing counts to grow over the next 2 months and peak at the beginning of April. The price range from $500,000 to $1 million has seen supply drop by 10% compared to this time last year, while that between $1 million and $2 million has increased by 6%. Above $2 million active listings are down 4%. 98% of active listings are normal with 38 short sales and 12 lender-owned properties.

Demand – Sales

January is usually a quiet month for sales, but January 2018 gave us 354 closed transactions though ARMLS. This is a very strong 34% rise from January 2017, when we saw 265. It is also the highest January total in history for the Northeast Valley luxury market. So we have just experienced 2 record months in a row. Every price range saw an increase over January 2017, but the sector over $3 million jumped 150% from 6 to 15. Also strong was the range from $600,000 to $ 800,000 with a 62% increase and $1.5 million to $2 million with a rise of 57%.

Demand – Under Contract

We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. We started February 2018 with 547 listings under contract, which is up 17% from the 468 of February 1, 2017. This is a good increase although a lower percentage than last month and suggests continued sales growth during February and March. Most price ranges saw good increases compared to last year, except for $2 million to $3 million which was flat at 24 and $500,000 to $600,000 which declined from 139 to 128. Normal sales comprise 97% of luxury homes in escrow, up from 94% last year.

Sales Pricing

Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the 12 month average move upwards to around $271 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 24%. Luxury home pricing first peaked in August 2015 when the twelve-month average price per sq. ft. hit $269 and finally exceeded that level 3 months ago. The twelve-month average currently stands at $271, up 1.9% from $266 in January 2017. The six-month average climbed to $273, up from $268 in January 2017 and the three-month average reached $283, up $7 from $276 in January 2017.

Overall luxury pricing has established a weak rising trend again, having moved sideways between 2015 and 2017.

Under Contract Pricing

The rise in sales pricing was expected thanks to last month’s strength in the under contract pricing numbers. However, under contract pricing has declined and stands at $269 as of February 1, down from $280 at the start of the year. This is still higher than we were seeing prior to December, but suggests only modest sales pricing growth over the near term.

The average under contract price for normal listings is $270 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $191 per sq. ft and short sales average $220 per sq. ft.

Area Reports - February 2018

Although we publish montly reports for the following five communities, we track sales in all areas of the Northeast Valley. If you have questions about a specific area that is not covered in the areas below, please call us at 480-991-2050 and we can provide you with up-to-date market information.

Paradise Valley

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Scottsdale

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Arcadia

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Biltmore

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Fountain Hills

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