Market Data - March 2018

We are looking at single family homes priced from $500,000 upwards in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.

Supply

On March 1, 2018 we had 3,273 active listings over $500,000. This is a 4% increase from last month. We have 6% fewer listings than we saw on March 1, 2017. Despite this, luxury listings are still in good supply compared with the rest of market. We expect listing counts to grow during March and peak at the beginning of April. The price range from $500,000 to $1 million has seen supply drop by 13% compared to this time last year, while that over $1 million has changed very little, down less than 1%. 98% of active listings are normal with 40 short sales and 12 lender-owned properties.

Demand – Sales

February 2018 gave us 336 closed transactions though ARMLS. This is a strong 25% rise from February 2017, when we saw 268. It is also the highest February total since 2006 for the Northeast Valley luxury market. We have now experienced 3 very strong sales months in a row. Not every price range saw an increase over February 2017, with the sector between $500,000 and $600,000 down 1% and homes over $1.5 million falling 12%. However, the range between $600,000 and $1.5 million jumped 44% from 163 to 235.

Demand – Under Contract

We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. We started March 2018 with 691 listings under contract, which is up 16% from the 595 of March 1, 2017. This is a similar increase to last month and suggests continued sales growth during March and April. Most price ranges saw good increases compared to last year, though homes under $1 million are seeing lower percentage increases, perhaps because of the diminishing supply. Normal sales comprise 97% of luxury homes in escrow, up from 96% last year.

Sales Pricing

Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the 12-month average move upwards to around $273 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 25%. Luxury home pricing first peaked in August 2015 when the twelve-month average price per sq. ft. hit $269 and finally exceeded that level 4 months ago. The twelve-month average currently stands at $273, up 2% from $267 in February 2017. The six-month average climbed to $276, up from $271 in February 2017 and the three-month average reached $285, up from $272 in February 2017.

Overall luxury pricing has established a rising trend again, having moved sideways between 2015 and 2017.

Under Contract Pricing

We have seen a decent rise in sales pricing over the past 4 months. Under contract pricing stands at an average of $274 per sq. ft. as of March 1, up from $252 at the start of March last year. This is also higher than the $269 we were seeing last month and suggests that sales price growth is likely to continue over the near term.

The average under contract price for normal listings is $275 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $186 per sq. ft and short sales average $220 per sq. ft.

Area Reports - March 2018

Although we publish montly reports for the following five communities, we track sales in all areas of the Northeast Valley. If you have questions about a specific area that is not covered in the areas below, please call us at 480-991-2050 and we can provide you with up-to-date market information.

Paradise Valley

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Scottsdale

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Arcadia

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Biltmore

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Fountain Hills

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