Market Data - May 2018

We are looking at single family homes priced from $500,000 upwards in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.

Supply

On May 1st, 2018 we had 3,292 active listings over $500,000. This is a 3% decrease from last month. We have 6% fewer listings than we saw on May 1st, 2017. Luxury listings are still in good supply compared with the rest of market. However, we have seen small reductions over the past two years and the supply trend is drifting downwards rather than up as it was between 2014 and 2016. The price-range from $1.5 million to $2 million is up 4% and homes over $3 million are up 8%, so not every price range is falling. That between $600,000 and $800,000 is down the most since last year, dropping by 14%. 99% of active listings are normal with 33 short sales and fourteen lender-owned properties. Normally luxury listing counts peak at the beginning of April and decline until September and 2018 should be no exception.

Demand – Sales

April 2018 gave us 504 closed transactions though ARMLS. This is a strong 18% rise from April 2017, when we saw 426. It is also the highest April total in history for the Northeast Valley luxury market, exceeding the previous record of 475 in 2005. We have now experienced five very strong sales months in a row. Every price range saw an increase over April 2017, with the sector between $1.5 million and $3 million up over 34%.

Demand – Under Contract

We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. We started May 2018 with 761 listings under contract, which is up 20% from the 632 of May 1st, 2017. This is a slightly larger increase than last month and suggests strongly that year over year sales growth will continue into May and June. All price ranges saw increases compared to last year, though homes between $2 million and $3 million surged from 16 to 36. Those over $3 million jumped from 33 to 55. The demand at the high end is far stronger than in 2017. Normal sales comprise 97% of luxury homes in escrow, down from 98% last year.

Sales Pricing

Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the twelve-month average move upwards to around $274 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 26%. Luxury home pricing first peaked in August 2015 when the twelve-month average price per sq. ft. hit $269 and finally exceeded that level five months ago. The twelve-month average currently stands at $274, up 3% from $267 in April 2017. The six-month average has climbed to $284, up from $274 in April 2017 and the three-month average reached $285, up from $272 in April 2017.

Overall luxury pricing has established a rising price trend again over the last 5 months, having moved sideways between 2015 and 2017.

Under Contract Pricing

We have seen a rise in sales pricing over the past twelve months. Under contract pricing stands at an average of $303 per sq. ft. as of May 1st, up from $287 at the start of May last year.

The average under contract price for normal listings is $306 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $191 per sq. ft and short sales average $205 per sq. ft.

Area Reports - May 2018

Although we publish montly reports for the following five communities, we track sales in all areas of the Northeast Valley. If you have questions about a specific area that is not covered in the areas below, please call us at 480-991-2050 and we can provide you with up-to-date market information.

Paradise Valley

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Scottsdale

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Arcadia

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Biltmore

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Fountain Hills

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