Market Data - May 2019
We are looking at single family homes priced from $500,000 upwards in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.
On May 1st, 2019 we had 3,143 active listings over $500,000. This is a 3% decrease from 3,238 last month which is typical for the time of year and represents 5% fewer listings than we saw on May 1st, 2018. The supply trend was moving clearly downwards during 2018 until we reached November. Although December through February saw supply start on a rising trend again, the March and April numbers were neutral, and May has started a new downward trend. The price range between $2 million and $3 million saw an increase last month and now stands a little higher than last year. All others decreased or were flat, while the range over $3 million dropped 22 from its record high of 364 listings last month. 99% of active listings are normal with 29 short sales / pre-foreclosures and eleven lender-owned properties. Normally luxury listing counts fall sharply between May and September every year.
Demand – Sales
April 2019 gave us 569 closed transactions though ARMLS. This is up 12% from April 2018, when we saw the previous record of 506. Thus, 2019 has set a record high for April sales. In addition, each price range either set or equally a new record for unit sales in April. The ranges between $600,000 and $800,000 and between $1.5 million and $2 million were exceptionally strong, growing 21% and 32% respectively from April 2018.
Demand – Under Contract
We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. We started May 2019 with 815 listings under contract, which is down 2% from the 831 of May 1st, 2018. This is a smaller gap than last month. Above $3 million we now have more homes under contract (48) than we have seen at the start of any previous May. This suggests that the top end of the market will once again be strong in May. Normal sales comprise 97% of luxury homes in escrow, the same as last year.
Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the twelve-month average move upwards to $285 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 30%. Luxury home pricing first peaked in August 2015 when the twelve-month average price per sq. ft. hit $269 and finally exceeded that level sixteen months ago. The twelve-month average currently stands at $285, up 4% from $274 in April 2018. The six-month average has climbed to $293, up from $284 in April 2018 and the three-month average stands at $300, up from $285 in April 2018.
Under Contract Pricing
Overall luxury pricing has established a rising price trend again over the last sixteen months, having moved sideways between 2015 and 2017. This has been helped by the growing number of transactions over $3 million.
Area Reports - May 2019
Although we publish montly reports for the following five communities, we track sales in all areas of the Northeast Valley. If you have questions about a specific area that is not covered in the areas below, please call us at 480-991-2050 and we can provide you with up-to-date market information.