Market Data - October 2016

We are looking at single family homes price from $500,000 upwards in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.

Supply

As predicted, September turned out to be the low point for active listings over $500,000 and we have 2,765 as of October 1, 2016. This is 7% more than last month and 13% more than last year at this time.   Last year supply grew strongly from this point until April, making life more difficult for sellers and easier for buyers. 98% of active listings are normal with 48 short sales and 13 lender-owned properties. The dip in supply was fairly consistent across all price ranges, although the range from $500,000 to $600,000 showed the smallest rise.

Demand – Sales

There were 321 closed transactions though ARMLS during September 2016, the highest September total since2005. They were up 5% from September 2015. Sales between $600,000 and $1 million were down compared with a year ago, but sales between $500,000 and $600,000 were especially strong compared with September 2015.  There were seven sales over $3 million, which is higher what we typically see in September and much stronger that the single $3 million sale in 2015 and more in line with the 9 we saw in September of 2014.

Demand – Under Contract

We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. The number of listings under contract was 449 as of October 1, which is up 12% from October 1, 2015. This is another positive sign and all ranges except $600,000 to $800,000 and $2 million to $3 million are higher than last year. Normal sales comprise 94% of luxury homes in escrow, up from 91% a year ago.

Sales Pricing

Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Over the 4.5 years since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the 12-month average move upwards to around $265 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 21%. However luxury home pricing peaked in August 2015 and has been on a slow weakening trend since then. The 12-month average pricing is $2 per sq. ft. lower than it was a year ago in September 2015. The six-month moving average stands at $261, down from $264 in September last year. The three-month average stands at $258, which is up $5 from September 2015.

Under Contract Pricing

The pricing for homes under contract was at a low point of $165 per sq. ft. in September 2011. Up to the end of March 2014 it was advancing and reached a peak of $257. Between March 2014 and August 2016 it has made no consistent moves in either direction and as of October 1, the average stands at $257, the same level as last month and 2.5 years ago. This suggests that sales prices will continue to move sideways in the near future. The average under contract price for normal listings is $261 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $264 per sq. ft and short sales average $188 per sq. ft.

Area Reports - October 2016

Although we publish montly reports for the following five communities, we track sales in all areas of the Northeast Valley. If you have questions about a specific area that is not covered in the areas below, please call us at 480-991-2050 and we can provide you with up-to-date market information.

Paradise Valley

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Scottsdale

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Arcadia

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Biltmore

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Fountain Hills

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