Market Data - October 2017

We are looking at single family homes priced from $500,000 upwards in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.

Supply

On October 1st, 2017 we have 2,667 active listings over $500,000. This is 6% more than the 2,551 we saw last month. Luxury listings are still in good supply compared with the rest of market. However this latest total represents 3% fewer listings than we saw in October 2016. We expect listings to grow quickly in number between October and April. All the price ranges participated in the uptick with the exception of $2 million to $3 million. 99% of active listings are normal with 41 short sales and 12 lender-owned properties.

Demand – Sales

There were 333 closed transactions though ARMLS during September 2017. This is a 3% rise from September 2016, when we saw 323. It is the second highest September total in history, beaten only by 2005 (with 422), at the height of the housing bubble. Not all price ranges saw higher sales than in September 2016, with the range over $2 million down from 21 to 16 and between $600,000 and $1.5 million down from 198 to 188. However sales for homes between $500,000 and $600,000 set a new September record at 107, up from 87 last year (the previous record).

Demand – Under Contract

We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. The number of listings under contract was 451 as of October 1st, which is up only slightly from the 449 of October 1st, 2016. Most price ranges saw little change, though the range between $1.5 million and $2 million dropped from 23 to 14 normal sales comprise 95% of luxury homes in escrow, up from 94% last year.

Sales Pricing

Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the 12 month average move upwards to around $270 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 23%. Luxury home pricing first peaked in August 2015 when the 12 month average price per sq. ft. hit $269 and finally exceeded that level last month. The 12 month average currently stands at $270, up from $263 in September 2016. The six month moving average slipped back to $267, but up from $261 in September 2016 and the 3 month average drifted down to $262, up $3 from $259 in September 2016.

Under Contract Pricing

The pricing for homes under contract was at a low point of $165 per sq. ft. in September 2011. Up to the end of March 2014 it was advancing quickly and reached a peak of $257. Since then it has made no consistent moves in either direction. As of October 1st, 2017, the average stands at $262, $9 more than this time last year but still shy of the $264 high set in January 2016. This suggests that sales prices may continue to make a little progress in the near future but it is likely to be slow going. The average under contract price for normal listings is $265 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $205 per sq. ft and short sales average $200 per sq. ft.

Area Reports - October 2017

Although we publish montly reports for the following five communities, we track sales in all areas of the Northeast Valley. If you have questions about a specific area that is not covered in the areas below, please call us at 480-991-2050 and we can provide you with up-to-date market information.

Paradise Valley

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Scottsdale

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Arcadia

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Biltmore

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Fountain Hills

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