Market Data - September 2016
We are looking at single family homes price from $500,000 upwards in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.
Active listings over $500,000 fell another 4% during August reaching 2,580 on September 1, which will no doubt prove to be the low point for 2016. This total is 14% higher than September 1, 2015. We still have enough supply to meet the relatively subdued demand from buyers during the summer months. 98% of active listings are normal with 44 short sales and 10 lender-owned properties. The dip in supply was fairly consistent across all price ranges, although the range from $600,000 to $800,000 did tick up a little.
Demand – Sales
There were 306 closed transactions though ARMLS during August 2016, the highest August total since2005. They were up 17% from August 2015, with 10% of that due to there being 2 extra working days in August this year and the remaining 7% because of genuine improvement in volume over August 2015.an July 2015. Sales over $1.5 million were down compared with a year ago, but sales between $500,000 and $600,000 were especially strong.
Demand – Under Contract
We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. The number of listings under contract was 472 as of September 1, which is up 11% from September 1, 2015. This is another positive sign and all ranges except $600,000 to $800,000 are higher than last year. Normal sales comprise 95% of luxury homes in escrow, up from 91% a year ago.
Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Over the 4.5 years since the market low of $219 in early 2012 we have seen the 12 month average move upwards to around $264 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 21%. However luxury home pricing peaked in August 2015 and has been on a slow weakening trend since then. The 12 month average pricing is $4 per sq. ft. lower than it was a year ago in August 2015. The six month moving average stands at $262, down from $265 last month and $266 in August last year. The 3 month average stands at $257, down less than $5 from August 2015.
Under Contract Pricing
The pricing for homes under contract was at a low point of $165 per sq. ft. in September 2011. Up to the end of March 2014 it was advancing and reached a peak of $257. Between March 2014 and August 2016 it has made no consistent moves in either direction and as of September 1, the average stands at $257, the same level as 2.5 years ago. This suggests that sales prices will continue to move sideways in the near future. The average under contract price for normal listings is $261 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $198 per sq. ft and short sales average $204 per sq. ft.
Area Reports - September 2016
Although we publish montly reports for the following five communities, we track sales in all areas of the Northeast Valley. If you have questions about a specific area that is not covered in the areas below, please call us at 480-991-2050 and we can provide you with up-to-date market information.