Market Data - September 2017

Our monthly report analyzes market trends for single-family homes priced $500,000 and over in all areas of the Northeast Valley, including Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Rio Verde, Arcadia, Biltmore, Cave Creek and Carefree.

Supply

On September 1st, 2017 we have 2,551 active listings over $500,000. This is 1% fewer than the 2,575 we saw last month. Luxury listings are still in good supply compared with the rest of market. However this latest total represents 1% fewer listings than we saw in September 2016. We expect the current reading to be the lowest point in 2017 and listings to grow quickly in number between September and April. In fact the price ranges from $500,000 to $600,000 and from $1.5 million to $2 million have already started to increase during August. 98% of active listings are normal with 41 short sales and 13 lender-owned properties.

Demand – Sales

There were 347 closed transactions though ARMLS during August 2017. This is a 23% rise from August 2016, when we saw 309. It is the second highest August total in history, beaten only by 2005 (with 507), at the height of the housing bubble. Most of the price ranges saw higher sales than in August 2016, with the range over $2 million up dramatically from 12 to 32. However sales for homes between $500,000 and $600,000 and between $1.5 million and $2 million were slightly lower.

Demand – Under Contract

We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. The number of listings under contract was 463 as of September 1st, which is down 2% from the 472 of September 1st, 2016. This is the first time we have seen a year over year decline for many months. Not all ranges saw a decline compared with 2016; $500,000 to $600,000, $1 million to $1.5 million and $2 million to $3 million were all up. Normal sales comprise 95% of luxury homes in escrow, the same as last year.

Sales Pricing

Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the 12 month average move upwards to around $270 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 23%. Luxury home pricing peaked in August 2015 when the 12 month average price per sq. ft. hit $269 and for the first time in 2 years we have seen a move higher than that. The 12 month average is currently $270. The six month moving average stands at $269, up from $261 in August 2016 and the 3 month average now stands at $265, up $9 from $255 in August 2016.

Under Contract Pricing

The pricing for homes under contract was at a low point of $165 per sq. ft. in September 2011. Up to the end of March 2014 it was advancing quickly and reached a peak of $257. Between March 2014 and May 2017 it has made no consistent moves in either direction. As of September 1st, 2017, the average stands at $254, just $4 higher than last year and still well shy of the peak of $264 set in January 2016. This suggests that sales prices may continue to make a little progress in the near future but it is likely to be slow going. The average under contract price for normal listings is $256 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $216 per sq. ft and short sales average $204 per sq. ft.

Area Reports - September 2017

Although we publish montly reports for the following five communities, we track sales in all areas of the Northeast Valley. If you have questions about a specific area that is not covered in the areas below, please call us at 480-991-2050 and we can provide you with up-to-date market information.

Paradise Valley

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Scottsdale

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Arcadia

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Biltmore

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Fountain Hills

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